Scientific evaluation of the development situation of electric vehicles in China


In 2018, the production and sales of electric vehicles in China will reach more than 1.2 million, with a growth rate of more than 70% and a market share of more than 4%, continuing to lead the world's electric vehicle bridge market. It is worth noting that in the good situation, there will be two major variables in the next two years: first, driven by the "double points" policy, foreign brand electric vehicles will enter the market. Second, after 2020, government subsidies will be completely withdrawn. This will lead to a major adjustment of China's electric vehicle axle Market, which should be scientifically analyzed and carefully prepared.

1. Electric drive will gradually become the main power source of automobile axle products, which is the general trend.

The external factors driving this change are the environmental protection situation and energy situation in the world, and the internal factors are the technological progress in the fields of power battery, electric motor, etc., which have made the electric vehicle completely enter the practical stage. All the major automobile bridge companies in the world have done well in product preparation and development planning of electric vehicles, which represents the mainstream view of the world automobile industry. Although there are still a few experts who question whether the cause of global warming is not carbon dioxide emissions and the emission reduction effect of electric vehicle bridges in the whole life cycle, this is not the mainstream opinion.

It is true that the design of electric vehicle products is not perfect, the cost performance cannot be compared with traditional power vehicles, the charging is not convenient, the maintenance rate is low when the products are updated quickly, and some products obviously exist to cater to subsidies. However, from the perspective of the development of the vehicle and bridge industry, none of these can prevent the development of the market share of electric vehicles to 30%. At that time, I believe these problems can be properly solved.

2. In the process of industrialization of electric vehicle axle, the development mode of policy driven market and market driven technological progress adopted by China is successful.

It has been proved by practice that in recent years, investment and talents have gathered in China's electric vehicle bridge industry, and technological progress has accelerated. In the past 10 years, the energy density of power battery has been more than doubled, the cost has been reduced by 2 / 3, the product renewal and technological progress have been accelerated, and the gap with the world's advanced level has been significantly narrowed. At the same time, the design level of the whole vehicle is significantly improved, and the risk-free is significantly improved. The construction speed and technical level of charging infrastructure are also rapidly improved. It can be predicted that in another five years or so, China's electric vehicles can reach the world's advanced level as a whole, the cost of the whole life cycle will be equivalent to that of traditional power vehicles, and the inconvenient charging situation will be fundamentally improved.